The latest study on the development of labor demand was carried out on behalf of the largest association in the German automobile lobby, the VDA, at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, or “Ifo Institute” for short.
Their main finding: “Due to the shrinking production of internal combustion engines, more jobs will be lost in the German automotive industry than employees will retire in the coming years.” One of the conclusions from this is: “Since the gap is already known, companies have the opportunity to take appropriate measures in good time, for example retraining and further training.”
The scientists have around 613,000 jobs for the production of conventional drive technology in Germany. If electromobility continues to grow at the assumed speed by 2025, “between 29 percent and 36 percent of the affected employees would be available”, that is up to 221,000 people. According to the study, around 86,000 of them should retire by then.
Highly specialized small businesses are likely to suffer particularly
The auto and supplier industries have already started to cut jobs due to the simplification of production. If the car companies operate the production, which has largely been outsourced today, in part again, the supplier industry would lose some of the development and production orders for electric car parts. The highly specialized small businesses in particular would in some cases not be flexible enough to adapt their range to the new requirements.
The transition to electromobility is therefore the biggest change for the medium-sized supplier industry. It is unclear according to the Study entitled “Effects of the increased production of electrically powered cars on employment in Germany”to what extent the dismantling of today’s partially parallel production for the manufacture of cars with internal combustion engines and electric cars and a lower added value will cost additional jobs.