The chip shortage should be eliminated in 2022, manufacturers are threatened with overcapacity in 2023


The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly faster in 2021 than in the previous year and the shortage of chips should be overcome in the course of the coming year, market researchers report. Intel is less optimistic and assumes that the bottlenecks will not be over until 2023. Then capacity expansions of some semiconductor manufacturers will also go into operation, which could even lead to overcapacity.

That Market research company IDC reportsthat the semiconductor market will grow by 17.3 percent in 2021. That would be a significant increase over 2020, when growth was 10.8 percent. The chip factories are running at almost 100 percent capacity this year and have already increased their prices in the first half of the year. This development is expected to continue in the second half of the year due to high demand and rising material costs.

According to IDC, the situation in the semiconductor industry should normalize by mid-2022. The bottlenecks in the automotive industry, on the other hand, are expected to ease by the end of 2021. Currently, the shortage is less in the silicon produced, but in the supply chain and additional materials. By the end of 2022, larger capacity expansions in the chip factories should also be available. Then, however, there is even a threat of overcapacity.

Im Interview with a Dutch magazine explains Intel’s European Vice President Maurits Tichelman about the shortage of chips in a similar way, but is less optimistic. According to this, Intel is mainly confronted with a shortage of substrates, so that the chips cannot be assembled. The availability of some Intel products will not be optimal in 2022 either, but Intel sees itself on track in 2023 and the bottlenecks will be over. The car manufacturer Daimler, which does not expect the chip crisis to ease significantly until 2023, sees it similarly.

For this year IDC is forecasting growth rates in all semiconductor areas. Chip production for the automotive industry is expected to grow by 22.3 percent, and for x86 servers even by 24.6 percent. Chips for notebooks are still up by 11.8 percent. The strongest growth is expected for chips for 5G mobile communications, namely 128 percent, whereas chips for smartphones will still increase by 28.5 percent overall.


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